The government has published the that pay for most teachers and leaders rise by 3 per cent next year. Here鈥檚 what you need to know… 1. The recommendations Although the school teachers’ review body is free to make its own recommendations, in reality the body is heavily curtailed by the 鈥渞emit鈥 provided by the government and its wishes set out in evidence. In its latest evidence, the DfE has recommended rises worth 3.5 per cent across the board, consisting of: A 3 per cent rise for those on the upper and leadership pay ranges (this is most teachers and leaders) A 7.1 per cent increase in point 1 of the main pay range, taking starting salaries to 拢30,000 outside London 鈥楥ommensurate tapered uplifts鈥 to remaining pay points in the main pay range The STRB included the following illustration of the effect these rises would have on the pay scales in its last report… 2. Extra funding 鈥榮trengthens鈥 case for higher rise A 3 per cent rise was actually the STRB鈥檚 recommendation for 2023 in its last report, but the DfE chose to only accept its recommendation for 2022 at the time. However, the department said it now 鈥渞ecognises the merits of a 3 per cent uplift and that the case for this award has strengthened in light of additional schools funding provided since the autumn statement鈥. School funding was increased by 拢2 billion. 3. No extra funding coming鈥 DfE said the proposed 3.5 per cent rise overall would be 鈥渁ffordable鈥 for schools from their current budgets given the recent extra funding. However, 鈥渟ignificant change鈥 in coming months 鈥渕ay support delivering a higher award for experienced teachers鈥. For example, if more 鈥渉eadroom鈥 becomes available because of changes to energy cost pressures. A higher award for experienced teachers and leaders 鈥渨ould of course have recruitment and retention benefits鈥, DfE added. 4. 鈥nd it could force schools to make 鈥榚fficiencies鈥 However, the benefits of a higher award would need to be 鈥渃onsidered carefully alongside the impact that a higher award could have on schools鈥 budgets which could require schools to make savings, with more significant trade-offs鈥, the DfE said. A pay award above what is affordable 鈥渃ould require reductions in other areas of school spending and the need for schools to make efficiencies鈥. A higher pay award 鈥渨ould also risk the fight against inflation, as it could require further government borrowing during a time when sustainable public finances are vital鈥. 5. Teacher leaving rates rising again So-called teacher 鈥渨astage鈥 rates 鈥 the proportion of teachers leaving the profession for reasons other than retirement or death 鈥 had generally been falling since a peak in 2016. However, the latest data shows a slight uptick in leaving rates between 2020 and 2021. According to the school workforce census, the number of teachers becoming 鈥渙ut of service鈥 rose to just over 32,000 in 2020-21, up from just over 27,000 in the previous year. 6. Generosity of 拢30k starting salary will 鈥榙iminish鈥 The DfE has recommended a 7.1 per cent increase in starting salaries next year, to take them to 拢30,000 outside London 鈥渨ithout further delay鈥. This means the government will meet its manifesto pledge made in 2019, albeit later than promised. However, in its evidence, the department acknowledged that 鈥渁s time lapses, the perception of 拢30,000 as a financially rewarding figure is likely to diminish, as other graduate professions match or begin to exceed this figure鈥. 7. No sign of key teacher survey data Unions had been pressing the government to include the outcome of the government鈥檚 new 鈥渨orking lives of teachers and leaders鈥 survey in its evidence to the STRB. The survey was carried out by IFF Research and the Institute of Education for the first time last spring, but the findings are still not out, and are not included in the evidence. The DfE said that when the report is published, the STRB 鈥渕ay wish to consider the evidence presented there.鈥 Government hopes to 鈥渃onduct more detailed analysis鈥 of the data 鈥渋n future years鈥. 8. Falling pupil numbers may 鈥榓lleviate pressure鈥 In recent years, schools have grappled with increasing pupil numbers, caused by a baby boom in 2000s. However, according to DfE estimates, pupil numbers are due to fall by 9.4 per cent between 2022 and 2030. The DfE said this 鈥渞eduction in demand over the coming years could serve to alleviate some of the pressures on classroom teacher numbers鈥. However, the graduate-age population is also due to shrink, offering a smaller pool from which to recruit teachers. 9. 拢2.1bn 鈥榟eadroom鈥, but don鈥檛 blow it all on pay rises Alongside its evidence to the STRB, the DfE has published a technical note on predicted schools鈥 costs. This estimates that schools, on average, could afford 拢2.1 billion in 鈥渘ew spending鈥 before facing a 鈥渘et pressure on their budgets鈥 (though the DfE is keen to point out this won鈥檛 apply to all schools). But this does not take account of pay awards for staff, or likely increases to energy bills, so they would need to be met within this amount. The DfE also said the headroom figure 鈥渄oes not represent a sum that could be directed in full to teachers鈥 pay without very significantly impacting on other areas of schools鈥 spending鈥. 10. Great uncertainty over energy bills The DfE has asked the STRB to 鈥減articularly consider鈥 the impact of energy costs, but acknowledged these were 鈥渃urrently particularly difficult to forecast with confidence at both a national and school level鈥. School-level costs will vary based on usage and contracts, while 鈥渕arket volatility鈥 means costs are 鈥渓ikely to vary over the course of the year鈥, particularly after government support ends in March. The DfE predicted that every 100 per cent increase in energy costs in 2023 would cost the sector around 拢600 million, and stakeholders have cited increases of up to 300 per cent. 11. Keep 鈥榩arity鈥 with private sector The government has said public sector earnings growth should 鈥渞etain broad parity with the private sector and continue to be affordable鈥. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast average earnings growth will fall to 3.5 per cent in the next financial year. 鈥淎 3.5 per cent overall award thereby maintains competitiveness within the wider labour market, supporting recruitment and retention,鈥 DfE claimed. 鈥淭his is even more notable given the context of the forecast recession.鈥