The number of new trainee teachers needed to ensure a sufficient supply is expected to drop by almost a quarter next year, according to a new DfE forecast. The teacher workforce model (TWM) estimates how many teachers are required for primary and secondary schools. By considering how many teachers will leave or join the workforce, it also estimates the number of postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) trainees needed to ensure sufficient teacher numbers in future years. published today shows the DfE predicts 20,800 trainees will need to be recruited for state schools this September, a drop of 23 per cent (6,120) compared to 2025-26. The Department predicts 15,280 trainees will need to be recruited for secondary schools, down 21 per cent on last year, and 5,520 for primaries, down 28 per cent. The DfE said falling pupil rolls and better teacher retention rates were among reasons for the drop. Primary pupil numbers are “projected to fall more rapidly by 2027-28″, with secondary numbers also beginning to fall, said the DfE in notes published alongside the data. Meanwhile overall teacher retention forecasts are 鈥渕ore favourable this year鈥�. 鈥淢ore teachers being retained means fewer teachers are needed to replace losses.” While secondary ITT recruitment has repeatedly failed to hit targets and remained 11 per cent below target in 2025-26, recruitment was the best it had been in four years. Fewer primary teachers needed in coming years The DfE has published new , which show historic trends in pupil and teacher numbers as well as future projections. As primary pupil rolls continue to fall, overall teacher demand in that phase is projected to fall by 4 per cent in the next few years. This is across the whole teaching workforce, not just new trainees. Secondary teacher demand, meanwhile, is expected to 鈥渞emain relatively stable, in line with plateauing pupil numbers鈥�. Primary pupil numbers rose from 4.07 million in 2010-11, to a peak of 4.73 million in 2018-19. They have since fallen, dropping to a low of 4.58 million in 2024-25. The DfE predicts they will continue falling by around 75,000 on average over the next three years, reaching 4.4m by 2027-28. While primary pupil numbers have increased by 12.5 per cent since 2010-11, teacher numbers have risen by just under 10 per cent in that time. According to DfE trajectories, primary pupil numbers will fall by around 4.9 per cent between 2024-25 and 2027-28. Meanwhile it forecasts teacher demand will drop by 8,577, or 4 per cent, in that time. Secondary pupil numbers have risen by 14 per cent since 2010-11, but the number of full-time equivalent teachers fell from 218,700 in 2010-11 to around 203,000 in 2018-19, before rising again to around 219,000 in 2024-25. While secondary pupil numbers are expected to decrease by 0.6 per cent between 2024-25 and 2027-28, the DfE predicts secondary teacher demand will fall by just 0.03 per cent. The DfE says this is partly because the bulge in pupil numbers will move into post-16, where class sizes are smaller. ‘Not time for complacency’ Jack Worth, education workforce lead at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) welcomed “transparency” around how the DfE has estimated ITT targets and the factors driving the lower targets. But he warned: “This is not a time for complacency. “Sustained progress will be essential to reverse the damage that previous under-supply has caused to the extent of specialist teaching in shortage secondary subjects and particularly in schools serving the most disadvantaged communities.” Meanwhile Emma Hollis, CEO of the National Association of School-Based Teacher Trainers (NASBTT), welcomed the improving picture for retention and recruitment. But she stressed that not all trainees go on to work in state schools, adding: “It does not…automatically track that recruitment which exceeds need will lead to an over-supply of teachers”. , from 2023-24, estimated just 75 per cent of trainees who achieved qualified teacher status were teaching in a state school within 16 months. Hollis said national figures also “often disguise regional complexities, and the distribution of trainees and teacher supply need is not evenly spread across the country”. She said primary ITT providers will “continue to work closely to understand recruitment needs in their locality and will continue to plan recruitment activity accordingly”.