The Ofsted 鈥榮tate of the nation鈥 metric became a regular soundbite for Conservative education ministers boasting about the supposed success of their reforms 鈥 despite repeated warnings the statistic was misleading. But following an end to headline Ofsted grades in September, the watchdog has confirmed it is now retiring the measure, which showed the increasing number of schools rated 鈥榞ood鈥 or 鈥榦utstanding鈥. Nine in ten schools are now rated 鈥榞ood鈥 or better, , up from 86 per cent when the current framework was introduced and 68 per cent in 2010. The previous government frequently trumpeted that rise, despite repeated warnings 鈥 including from the statistics watchdog – about how misleading they are (particularly because the decade rise covered different inspection frameworks). 翱蹿蝉迟别诲鈥檚&苍产蝉辫; earlier this year found just 13 per cent of respondents from schools agreed the measure was 鈥渢ruly reflective of the overall quality of the sector鈥. Now Ofsted has launched its own broadside at the metric, as it considers what a replacement might look like when new report cards launch next autumn. Here鈥檚 what we learned 鈥 1. 鈥楧ifficult to isolate鈥 impact of changes… The 鈥榮tate of the nation鈥 measure was created in 2010 and was 鈥渄eveloped to give a comprehensive view of the sectors, as judgments from a single year鈥檚 worth of inspections are often affected by the mix of providers inspected鈥. But it was 鈥渋ntended as a high-level comparison and should be used with caution when comparing over long periods of time鈥, Ofsted said. For instance, how Ofsted inspects and how often different types of school are inspected has 鈥渃hanged multiple times鈥 since 2010. This affected 鈥渂oth the actual statistics, and the extent to which those statistics comprehensively summarise the quality of the sector鈥. 鈥淲ith multiple changes happening at the same time, it is difficult to isolate the impact of each factor on the overall picture.鈥 2. …with 鈥榮ignificant鈥 sector and inspection change The proportion of schools judged 鈥榞ood鈥 or better has increased from 68 per cent in 2010, which 鈥渁ligns with a view that the sector has improved鈥. But the sector 鈥渆xperienced significant change throughout this period鈥, including academisation, the growth of multi-academy trusts, changes to key stage tests and Covid disruption. And although there has been an overall effectiveness judgment on a four-point grading scale since 2005, the 鈥渋nspection process, the evidence that feeds into the inspection, and the sub-judgements that underpin the overall effectiveness judgement, have changed regularly鈥. The measure also currently combines overall effectiveness grades from across five different inspection frameworks. Just 49 per cent of schools have had a graded inspection under the current EIF that started in 2019.鈥 3. More regular inspections post 2012 spurred biggest rise The 鈥済reatest change鈥 in the proportion of schools judged 鈥榞ood鈥 or 鈥榦utstanding鈥 occurred between 2012 and 2015, when it increased from 69 per cent to 82 per cent. The new framework in 2012 replaced the 鈥榮atisfactory鈥 grade to 鈥榬equires improvement鈥. Those judged RI twice and still found not to be providing a good education were 鈥渓ikely鈥 to be found 鈥榠nadequate鈥 at their third inspection. New monitoring visits were also brought in, and follow-up inspections were carried out earlier than before (within two years). The number of inspections carried out 鈥渋ncreased as a result鈥, and this 鈥減rovided an opportunity for schools to demonstrate the improvements they had made, with consequent impact on the state of the nation statistic鈥. 4. Ungraded visits help identify issues quickly In 2015, Ofsted also introduced ungraded inspections for 鈥榞ood鈥 and 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools. Inspectors not satisfied that a school would have received at least its current grade at a full inspection could convert to a graded visit. However, since January 2018, 鈥渢his only happens if there is a concern about safeguarding, behaviour, or the quality of education鈥. Only 1 per cent of ungraded inspections converted last year. And 鈥渋n most cases, if the inspector finds the school may be declining or improving, we carry out a follow-up graded inspection in 1 to 2 years鈥. At the end of August 2024, there were 489 schools, 2 per cent of the total, that had a grade of 鈥榞ood鈥 or 鈥榦utstanding鈥 at their most recent graded inspection, but where concerns had been identified at their subsequent ungraded inspection. 鈥淢ost such schools do not receive a judgement of less than good at their follow-up graded inspection. This may be because identifying issues at an ungraded inspection helped these schools to improve quickly.鈥 5. 鈥楳ore opportunities鈥 to demonstrate improvement than decline Another issue behind the metric is that schools with strong performance have also been inspected 鈥渓ess often than weaker schools鈥. Timetables have varied based on previous inspection outcomes, the phase of education, whether the school is new or has seen significant changes. Since 2007, a 鈥渞isk assessment model considering context and performance data for the school has played a part in determining either the timing, or the type, of inspection a school receives鈥. This approach to inspection 鈥渕eans that overall, there have been more opportunities for weaker schools to improve their grade than there are for stronger schools to decline鈥. 6. 鈥極utstanding鈥 schools exempt for 8 years Meanwhile, between 2012 and 2020, 鈥榦utstanding鈥 primary and secondary schools were exempt from routine inspection. It meant scores of 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools had gone without an inspection for more than ten years by the time the exemption ended. Over the period, the proportion of 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools fell slightly from 20 to 19 per cent. But 鈥渢his is probably because, during the period of the exemption, we could still inspect exempt schools if we had concerns鈥. Out of the 3,900 schools that were 鈥榦utstanding鈥 when the exemption was introduced, 鈥渙nly 1,970 remained outstanding at the end of the period鈥. By August 2024, the proportion of 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools fell to 14 per cent. Just 30 per cent of schools kept the top grade at full inspection between 2021 and 2024. 7. Conclusion: 鈥榃e would advise caution鈥 Ofsted concluded there were 鈥渕any factors that may have affected the proportion of all schools judged 鈥榞ood鈥 or 鈥榦utstanding鈥 at their most recent inspection since this measure started in 2010鈥. 鈥淗owever, we cannot quantify the impact of all the different influences over time. As we look back over this period, we advise caution when viewing the data across different frameworks, and over extended periods of time.鈥 If only they had told the previous government鈥檚 education ministers… 8. What happens next? Ofsted is working on plans for new report cards, which it was revealed earlier this month could see schools awarded one of five grades across 10 inspection areas. The watchdog will need to decide whether to replace the headline state of the nation measure. Schools Week approached Ofsted for clarification on whether it would do so, and when.