The leader of the National Education Union (NEU) has said teachers could walk out on strike as soon as the autumn term if the government won’t up its pay offer and fully-fund the increase. Daniel Kebede told journalists at the union鈥檚 annual conference in Harrogate he was 鈥渧ery convinced鈥 a formal ballot would cross the required 50 per cent turnout threshold, after an indicative poll fell short at just over 47 per cent. Members to back a plan to move to a formal ballot 鈥渋f the final outcome of the [School Teachers鈥 Review Body] process remains unacceptable or if the government does not announce real terms funding increases in the June spending review鈥. In its evidence to the STRB last year, the Department for Education said 2.8 per cent pay rise 鈥渨ould be appropriate鈥 for 2025-26, adding that schools would need to find 鈥渆fficiencies鈥 to fund some of the increase. However, the DfE has since admitted schools will be able to afford less than half of the 2.8 per cent pay rise proposed for next year, despite the increase in funding announced at last autumn鈥檚 budget. Kebede called on Bridget Phillipson to publish the STRB report 鈥渋mmediately鈥. The education secretary said last year it was the 鈥済overnment鈥檚 intention鈥 to announce the upcoming pay awards 鈥渁s close to the start of the financial year of April as possible鈥. 鈥淲e know that it’s on her desk currently. Once we do have that made public and we are aware of the funding settlement, the executive will consider the next steps,” said Kebede. ‘Two main trigger points’ for a ballot Asked what the union would deem to be 鈥渁cceptable鈥, he said this would either be up to its ruling executive, or the question could be put to members. But 鈥渨e would need to see a pay recommendation and funding offer鈥 above the 2.8 per cent put forward. And on the timing of a potential ballot, Kebede said the conference motion set out 鈥渢wo main trigger points鈥 鈥 the government鈥檚 response to the STRB report and the end of the spending review in June. Asked for the earliest members could walk out, Kebede said: 鈥淚f we’re looking at June for the spending review鈥檚 conclusion, a ballot process would potentially open up after that. These are not quick, so you would be looking autumn term.鈥 Kebede said it would be possible for the union to launch a ballot in the summer term which would close in the autumn. He added that the funding settlement 鈥渋s absolutely as important as [the actual percentage]鈥 of any rise. Kebede ‘convinced’ NEU would reach thresholds An indicative online ballot which closed last week found 84 per cent of voting NEU members said they would be 鈥渨illing to take action to secure an increased pay award鈥. However, the turnout in that ballot was 47.2 per cent, which in a formal ballot would fall below the 50 per cent threshold unions must meet for legal industrial action. Asked if he was worried about the turnout figure, Kebede said 鈥47 per cent on a survey is very significant. Over 100,000 teachers voted to take strike action. That is incredibly significant. Bridget Phillipson 鈥淚f we are forced into a position because the government have not accepted pay review body recommendation above inflation, for example, and we are forced into a position of a formal ballot, then we will be putting every ounce of resource into getting through those Tory thresholds. And I’m very convinced that we would do that.鈥 He added that he thought members 鈥渨ill be much more certain in their decisions generally, once they know what the actual final offer is. That’s very clear.鈥 The government鈥檚 pay offer in 2022-23 led to eight days of national strike action by the NEU in 2023, the first since restrictive new anti-strike laws came into effect in 2016. The strikes paid off: later that year the Conservative government rubber-stamped a rise of 6.5 per cent. Phillipson said this week warned that 鈥渨ith school staff, parents and young people working so hard to turn the tide on school attendance, any move towards industrial action by teaching unions would be indefensible鈥. But Kebede today quoted an NEU member during the debate on the motion, who said that 鈥渦nderfunding of education is indefensible鈥. ‘We want to avoid strike action’ He also insisted the union 鈥渞eally want[s] to avoid strike action. 鈥淚’ve never met a teacher, teaching assistant who actually enjoys it, wants to do it. But the government do need to recognise it’s in their hands, and the membership have been really clear. 鈥淪chools are in crisis. You’ve got to bear in mind, this government have been elected nine months on the promise of change and their base, teachers, education staff, the Labour government base, really of core vote, it is already dissatisfied with their current positions.鈥 He said action was 鈥渃ompletely avoidable鈥ut we quite simply can’t continue enduring an education system in which there aren’t enough maths teachers, science teachers, in which the schools are in disrepair and which has a crisis in recruitment and retention, not just of teaching staff, but support staff. 鈥淲e all want to see that prosperous country, the economic growth, but we have to invest in education and the children and the future of the nation to achieve that.鈥 The NEU has called for a pay 鈥渃orrection鈥, warning teachers鈥 pay has been eroded in real-terms by 20 per cent since 2010. But Kebede insisted they were not demanding such a rise all at once. 鈥淚 don’t think anyone in that room in the conference hall is expecting a 20 per cent pay award in one go. What we would like to see is a series of above inflation pay awards that fundamentally make the teachers鈥 pay more competitive.鈥