A recommended 6.5 per cent teacher pay rise over three years would see pay grow more slowly than wider earnings which would hamper competitiveness, a new report warned. The school teacher labour market in England , published today by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), paints a 鈥渉appier鈥� picture of the workforce than recent reports, with teacher recruitment and retention improving. But it warned government “this is not the time for complacency鈥�, as the progress 鈥渃ould easily be reversed”. With general pay expected to rise by 7 per cent in the next three years, NFER says teacher pay should also rise by 7 per cent or more to keep pace and “continue to make the profession attractive”. Here, we’ve wrapped up the 11 key things you need to know, from NFER’s report… 1. 6.5% rise could mean falling pay Recent above-inflation pay rises have placed teacher starting salaries on par in real terms with where they were in 2010-11. But experienced teachers’ salaries “have only partially recovered” from a real-terms decline, and are still around nine per cent lower than they were in 2010-11. The DfE has proposed teacher pay should be increased by 6.5 per cent over the next three years. But NFER points out the OBR forecasts average UK earnings will grow by 7 per cent in that time, which 鈥渨ould result in a mild loss of competitiveness鈥� which 鈥渃ould undermine the positive recruitment and retention picture鈥�. NFER graph using NFER analysis of DfEs Schools Costs 2025 to 2029 OBR March 2026 forecasts and DfE evidence to STRB 2026 Paul Whiteman, general secretary of leaders’ union NAHT, said this “should serve as a stark reminder to government that the teacher pay problem is far from solved”. He said “very early signs of improvement” around recruitment and retention “should not be misread”. 鈥淥nly by restoring pay, modernising conditions, rebalancing workload, and reducing the stress of the job, will we solve this crisis.” 2. Overall recruitment appears 鈥榤uch improved鈥�… Overall recruitment to initial teacher training (ITT) increased in 2025-25. This is 鈥渓ikely driven by deteriorating employment opportunities in the wider labour market鈥�, said NFER. Primary recruitment hit its target for the first time in four years, recruiting 9,800 against a 7,700 target. Overall ITT performance was also the best it has been in four years. NFER said an increase in bursaries 鈥渕ay have helped some subjects鈥�, but it appears 鈥渓argely down to鈥� a slower wider labour market, particularly for graduate and entry-level jobs. 3. 鈥ut secondary recruitment remains below target However, overall recruitment remained below target for secondary, where around half of subjects under-recruited. Business studies 鈥� including economics 鈥� was the worst-performing, at around 70 per cent below target with just 270 recruits against a target of almost 900. The secondary ITT recruitment target has been missed every year since 2015-16, except in 2020-21. The last two years have shown 鈥渟igns of progress鈥� with recruitment reaching 89 per cent, up from 61 per cent the previous year. But this was due in part to the target being lowered from around 24,000 to around 19,000. 4. …and special schools will need 2.3k more staff The NFER also predicted thousands more teachers will be needed in state special schools and AP settings by 2027-28. Pupils in these settings are forecast to grow by 8.2 per cent, which will likely mean “additional demand for teachers”. An equivalent rise for FTE teachers in special and AP settings would mean 2,300 more teachers. NFER graph using DfE pupil projections and ONS population projections “However, the health of teacher supply into special schools and AP is not currently measured directly by DfE in the same way it is for primary and secondary teachers,” warned NFER. 5. Science recruitment appears to improve… Physics recruitment is at its best level since 2016-17, hitting 78 per cent of its target in 2025-26. The NFER said this was driven by an increase in international recruits, incentivised to apply due to bursaries being opened to non-UK nationals for the first time since 2022. NFER graph using data from DfE ITT census Chemistry recruitment was above target for the first time since 2014-15, and science was above the combined target for the first time since 2012-23. 6. …but bursary cuts are being felt The NFER said overall recruitment 鈥渕ay well have been ahead鈥� had bursaries not been cut. Some subjects like English and geography are recruiting less than they might otherwise due to the cuts, the think tank warned. Subjects where bursaries have been cut by 拢10,000 or more have seen a 36 per cent fall in accepted applicants, compared to the same point last year. Subjects that have not seen cuts are seven per cent higher, on average. NFER said reducing bursaries “is counterproductive, particularly given the government鈥檚 target to recruit 6,500 more teachers”. 7. Retention improves modestly Teacher retention has improved since a post-pandemic spike. Between nine and 11 per cent of teachers have left the state system every year since 2010, except during the pandemic. Nine per cent left the system between 2023-24 and 2024-25, equating to more than 8,000 teachers. The exit rate for first year teachers was 10.3 per cent – the lowest on record. The NFER said this suggested the new early career framework (ECF) may be having a positive effect, though whether these cohorts have permanently lower exit rates “remains to be seen”. 8. Teachers feeling more positive… Teachers are more positive about their workload that four years ago. And working hours have fallen slightly, according to two different surveys. But the NFER said “there is further to go”. Teachers are 11 percentage points more likely to say they want to work fewer hours than similar graduates. NFER graph using working lives of teachers and leaders data 9. …but reforms could mean higher workload Two major policy developments could mean increased workload “if not implemented carefully”. First is the new national curriculum, and the second is the government’s SEND reform programme, which “could also increase the workload burden many teachers face” as schools will be expected to create individual support plans for pupils and review them regularly. 10. …and CAR may require more teachers The education secretary previously acknowledged more specialist teachers will be needed so schools can deliver a new entitlement to offer triple science to all pupils – a key ambition of the curriculum and assessment (CAR) review. The NFER report echoes this, adding the change to how attainment 8 is measured could lead to an increase in pupils entering arts subjects and languages, while teacher supply may “not support rapid expansion”. 11. Recommendations The report made three recommendations. First, it said the STRB and government “should aim to maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay” by matching the growth in average earnings outside teaching, and funding schools to deliver this. It also warned the government “should consider bursary increases for languages and arts subjects that are below their ITT targets”, to support the implementation of the revisedcurriculum. It said the DfE should also “conduct more deliberate workforce planning” for special schools and AP, as it does for primary and secondary teachers. Jack Worth NFER workforce lead Jack Worth said: “Following more than a decade of persistent teacher recruitment and retention challenges, it is encouraging to see some signs of improvement. 鈥淗owever, this is not a time for鈥痝overnment or鈥痶he sector to rest on their laurels. 鈥淥verall鈥痵econdary recruitment remains鈥痓elow target. If the government wants to achieve its 6,500 teacher recruitment pledge and maintain healthy supply into the future, it must continue to make the profession attractive. This includes鈥痠ncreases to鈥痶eachers鈥� pay鈥痶hat鈥痬atch or exceed wider earnings growth and further progress on reducing teacher鈥痺orkloads.鈥�