Listen to this story Members can listen to an AI-generated audio version of this article. 1.0x Audio narration uses an AI-generated voice. 0:00 0:00 Become a member to listen to this article Subscribe Almost half of the GCSE attainment gap between poorer pupils and their better-off peers is 鈥渓ocked in鈥 by the end of primary school, new research has warned. By the time they reach the end of key stage 4, disadvantaged pupils are 18 months behind those from less deprived backgrounds. from the Education Policy Institute and Education Endowment Foundation found lower prior attainment at age 11 was the 鈥渓argest contributor鈥 to the gap, adding 6.8 months, Pupils鈥 lower prior attainment at age seven also contributes 1.6 months. The report said this reinforced 鈥渢hat early intervention has a 鈥榩rotective鈥 factor against gap-widening later on鈥. Overall, lower prior attainment in the early years and primary contributes 44 per cent of the gap seen at key stage 4. But pupils鈥 past performance isn鈥檛 the only factor in the gap. The report found disrupted schooling 鈥 notably pupil absence 鈥 plays a 鈥減rogressively larger role as children progress from primary to secondary school鈥. Absence contributes around a fifth of the attainment gap at key stage 2, rising to a third at key stage 4. Around 10 per cent of the disadvantage gap at ages 16 to 19 is 鈥渓inked to the characteristics of students鈥 peers, with disadvantaged students more likely to study in settings with lower average prior attainment and higher concentrations of disadvantage and SEND鈥. Emily Hunt, the EPI鈥檚 associate director for social mobility and vulnerable learners, said the research showed early intervention 鈥渋s crucial in addressing the disadvantage gap. 鈥淏ut it is not enough on its own. Disadvantaged pupils continue to fall behind at every stage of compulsory education, and are significantly more likely to experience disrupted schooling across both primary and secondary years, which further exacerbates the gap.鈥 ‘Cautious optimism’ But the research did find 鈥渃ause for cautious optimism鈥. 鈥淪trong attainment at primary school appears to act as a protective factor against later decline. But the key factors driving the gap: prior attainment, SEND and absence do not emerge in isolation. 鈥淭hey are affected by wider social conditions: welfare, health, housing and family support. Government investment that looks beyond school gates towards these underlying determinants will be essential if we are serious about closing the gap.” In its schools white paper, the government set a target to halve the attainment gap. The DfE measures it differently to the EPI, and as of last year, the gap stands at 3.9 points. EEF chief executive Becky Francis said that 鈥渢o do that, we need to really understand the factors that drive it. 鈥淲hat stands out from the findings is how hard it is for young people to catch up once they鈥檝e fallen behind. This has profound implications for our education system as a whole. 鈥淚t reinforces just how important investing in high-quality early years education is for disadvantaged children. And it also shows the limits of what schools can achieve on their own. Collaboration with services beyond the school gate is vital.鈥