The relaunch of the highly-effective School Cuts campaign has put unions on a collision-course with ministers again ahead of next year鈥檚 election. Re-launching their campaign and , the National Education Union, NAHT and ASCL leaders鈥 unions and ParentKind warned 92 per cent of mainstream schools will be 鈥渦nable to cope鈥 with cost increases in 2024-25. They predict 99 per cent of secondary schools and 91 per cent of primaries will have to 鈥渕ake cuts to survive鈥. However, the analysis is based on hypothetical spending and pay decisions not yet made by government. The unions want the chancellor to commit at next week鈥檚 autumn statement to an extra 拢1.7 billion in funding to allow schools to cover the cost of pay rises of that magnitude. They will lobby MPs as part of the campaign. In a recent letter to Jeremy Hunt, leaders pointed out school budgets are due to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2024-25, but school costs will rise 5.8 per cent if pay rises match this year’s settlement. Paul Whiteman, who leads the NAHT, pointed out prime minister Rishi Sunak had pledged to make education his main funding priority. 鈥淭he upcoming autumn statement is the prime minister鈥檚 opportunity to honour his promise to his party and to the country. We hope and expect to see him putting the country鈥檚 money where his mouth is.鈥 Analysis assumes another 6.5% pay rise The analysis assumes teachers will get another 6.5 per cent pay rise next year with no extra funding to cover the costs. In its methodology document, School Cuts said they 鈥渂elieve it is reasonable to assume it [pay] will increase by the same amount in 2024-25 given the scale of the teacher recruitment crisis鈥. But in recent years, government has provided funding to either fully or partially cover larger pay rises. Luke Sibieta, research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said although such high pay rises 鈥渃ould turn out to be necessary given difficulties recruiting and retaining both teachers and support staff鈥 strongly suspect that if the government did agree to such rises, they would provide extra funding to cover the associated costs鈥. IFS analysis also actually suggests schools could 鈥減robably afford a pay rise of 3 per cent next year based on existing funding鈥. The School Cuts campaign was ramped up in the run-up to the 2017 general election, in which education became the third biggest issue for voters, behind only Brexit and health. The Conservatives ended up losing their majority. A poll after the election suggested 750,000 people changed their vote because of concerns about school funding. The website was relaunched again last autumn with a call for 拢2 billion extra funding, which was subsequently awarded at the autumn statement. Now it has been updated with next year鈥檚 funding figures. ‘Educational provision and standards are at risk’ Geoff Barton, ASCL鈥檚 general secretary, said the School Cuts data was 鈥渟tark and the conclusion inescapable 鈥 educational provision and standards are at risk because of the inadequacy of government funding鈥. But Conservative MPs have been highly critical of the School Cuts website. The website was also criticised in 2019 by the UK Statistics Authority which concluded a claim that 91 per cent of schools were facing funding cuts gave a 鈥渕isleading impression鈥. Daniel Kebede But when approached by Schools Week to ask if it contested any of the figures presented on the relaunched website, the Department for Education declined to do so. Instead, its spokesperson pointed out school funding was 鈥渞ising by 拢3.5 billion this year compared to 2022-23, reaching the highest level in history, in real terms per pupil, by 2024-25鈥. But Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the NEU, said the government 鈥渨hich has insisted for too long on schools doing more with less, has now run out of road鈥. 鈥淭his is an overwhelming case for action on school funding. We need to see substantial new investment in the coming autumn statement.” In a letter to the prime minister and education secretary Gillian Keegan, Stephen Morales, chief executive of the Institute of School Business Leadership, said professionals have 鈥渟pent well over two decades trying to plaster over the cracks of funding insufficiency鈥. He said current capital investment levels mean it would take 400 years to rebuild every school. He also called for an end to 鈥渢he reactive and piecemeal approach to funding announcements鈥 which results in pay announcements coming after the budget-setting process in schools has begun.