Kids dropping out of the school system are now turning into NEETs, and there鈥檚 not enough lower-level provision in place to help them turn their lives around, writes Jessica Hill Mickey Symes wanted to be a plumber. But after missing out on a grade 4 in his maths and English GCSEs the previous year, he feared the subjects would forever hold him back. And on finding out his chosen level-two college course was oversubscribed, the 18 year old from Colchester, Essex, instead joined a growing wave of young NEETs (not in employment, education or training). His story is one playing out nationally. The proportion of 16 and 17-year-old NEETs rose slightly to 5 per cent in 2023. The rate is as bad as it was in 2013, when the law changed to require all young people to continue education, employment or training until 18. However, soaring rates of school absenteeism, exclusions and home education could see NEET numbers escalate further, say leaders. With demand for the low-level provision that targets NEETs already overstretched, any further rise could scupper the , offering all 18 to 21 year olds opportunities for training, an apprenticeship or help finding work. Schools Week 颈苍惫别蝉迟颈驳补迟别蝉鈥 Mickey Symes The forgotten skills While the last government was busy rolling out T-levels and drawing up plans for a new Advanced British Standard, lower-level qualifications fell off its radar. But, at the same time, demand for them spiralled. Olly Newton, former head of the Department for Education鈥檚 NEET policy team and now executive director of the Edge Foundation, says the increased focus on higher skills 鈥渟houldn鈥檛 have come at the expense of helping people who haven’t got on that first rung of the ladder鈥. New College Swindon was almost caught short this year after getting 56 per cent more applicants (200 more students) than it expected for its courses at level one and below. Its vice principal of commercial, skills and partnerships Matt Butcher puts this down to more young people 鈥渟lipping below the GCSE grades they were expecting鈥, and more being missing from the school system. The latest post-16 maths pass rate is 17.4 per cent, down from 21.2 per cent in 2019, while English is 20.9 per cent, down from 30.3 per cent. Research by Newcastle City Council, published in June, found 鈥渄isillusioned鈥 young people told researchers that failure to pass those subjects was a reason not to enter education and training programmes. It鈥檚 worse for boys, who have lower pass rates in both subjects. In maths the gulf is particularly pronounced 鈥 with just 17.3 per cent getting a pass in maths post-16, compared to nearly 26 per cent for girls. Olly Newton Edge Foundation Accommodating the influx at New Swindon College 鈥渃ould鈥檝e proved impossible with much higher demand鈥, says Butcher. This poses problems for next year, when he expects level one and below course demand to be twice what it was two years ago. Newcastle City Council found a 鈥渓ack of level-one post-16 study programmes鈥 was 鈥渁 national issue鈥 as the programmes had 鈥渘ot been an attractive financial option for training providers鈥. Luminate Education Group, which runs schools and colleges in West Yorkshire, says projections indicate a shortage of over 2,000 places for courses at level two and below in Leeds. The group鈥檚 Leeds City College is operating waiting lists. Luminate chief executive Colin Booth says the college is now 鈥渧ery clearly full to capacity in all of our buildings鈥, with a 鈥渇urther rise鈥 in young NEETs expected. Leeds City College鈥檚 14-16 provision, which supports NEET reduction strategies, is also 鈥渋ncredibly oversubscribed, with well over 1,000 enquiries and applications for 120 places each year鈥. Booth claims that if those learners were not in college, 鈥渕any would be in alternative provision funded at three times the cost鈥. Local authority alternative provision placements rose 108 per cent between 2017-18 and 2023-24, from 23,086 to 48,133, and placement costs have also increased. In Stoke-on-Trent, where 16.5 per cent of 16 to 17 year olds are NEETs, the cost of alternative provision for excluded pupils shot up from 拢2.3 million in 2022-23 to 拢3.1 million in 2023-24. Brexit blow Before Brexit, the European Social Fund delivered via the EU had a 鈥渟trong 鈥渇ocus鈥 on helping NEETs into work. But the UK Shared Prosperity Fund that partially replaces it instead funds the Multiply scheme, designed to boost numeracy skills, with the rest devolved locally for a broad range of purposes. The fund鈥檚 future remit is currently uncertain. In Kent, a council report blamed the European Social Fund demise in the UK for a reduction in NEET provision for 16-19 year olds. On average, 80 pupils were permanently excluded from Kent secondaries every month in 2023-24, more than treble the council鈥檚 target. There were 5,228 children missing from education in June, up from 3,600 two years earlier. Meanwhile, between three and five of the county鈥檚 12 districts have no NEET provision available. The council says the squeeze on provision along with a 鈥渞egrading of GCSE boundaries鈥 caused the spike in NEETs. Steve Rotheram Liverpool City Region mayor In Liverpool City Region, mayor Steve Rotheram pledged four years ago that every young person who was NEET for more than six months would be offered a job, apprenticeship or training programme 鈥 similar to Labour鈥檚 youth guarantee. He鈥檚 now offering 拢3,000 wage incentives to employers that recruit young people, and expanding career mentoring services. But NEET rates are still rising. All the region鈥檚 six council areas experienced a rise in 16 to 17-year-old NEETs in the year to 2023, with local authorities 鈥渋ndicating a continual rise鈥, the combined authority said. But in Liverpool city, where over half (50.8 per cent) of 16 to 24 year olds are economically inactive, the council says it is 鈥渁t a disadvantage鈥 in bringing down NEET rates because it has 鈥渧ery little control over many鈥 local schools. Schools鈥 blindspot Meanwhile, schools say they are hamstrung in their ability to understand how many pupils go on to become NEETs. Destination measures produced by the government only examine the two terms after a pupil leaves school. The Department for Education鈥檚 Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset contains information about the activity and earnings of young people up to age 30, but is only accessible by researchers. Newton believes the government should use the LEO database to provide school leaders with 鈥渕ore complex鈥 longer-term data on pupil outcomes. This could be linked to new school reports being developed by Ofsted and could 鈥済ive schools useful contextual information鈥, he says, adding they might have 鈥渞eally strong academic results but find out that many former pupils drop out after the first year of university, perhaps because they didn鈥檛 get careers advice鈥. Labour has pledged to make two weeks of work experience mandatory 鈥 as it used to be until 2013 when the coalition government made it optional 鈥 and provide 1,000 new careers advisers in schools. Zack Johnson a participant on CECs programme preventing NEETs A project by the Careers & Enterprise Company (CEC) providing careers advice to 14 to 17 year olds who receive free school meals found that having a 鈥榯rusted adult鈥 for career mentoring was 鈥渢he key to success鈥 in preventing them becoming NEET. For Zack Johnson, 17, who found himself 鈥渞iddled with anxiety鈥 upon returning to school post-Covid and later became homeschooled, that 鈥榯rusted adult鈥 was his careers coach, Anna. They had three hour-long sessions each year to discuss career goals. He was inspired to apply to a music production course after Anna introduced him to a local jazz musician, and now has his sights on being a singer songwriter. Of the 1,000 pupils who participated in the CEC project, 94 per cent successfully transferred to college or training upon leaving school (compared to 88 per cent of disadvantaged young people nationwide). Only 1 per cent had quit six months later. CEC鈥檚 associate director for grants and development Max Rowe says their initial assumption was that pupils with high school absence rates would be 鈥渕ore likely to drop out鈥 of the programme. But that wasn鈥檛 the case. In East Sussex, 91 per cent of the 105 persistent school absentees who were supported went on to sustained year 12 education or employment, compared to 76 per cent of other local disadvantaged persistent absentees. Matt Oakes, assistant principal at Ormiston Bolingbroke Academy, says a university trip organised by the programme in Liverpool led one of his pupils to decide university was 鈥渄efinitely the path for him, having never even considered it before鈥. However, the scheme isn鈥檛 cheap at just over 拢2,000 per pupil. Funding for career guidance in state secondary schools was removed in 2011. Although many would love to be able to provide it, a report by Careers England in 2019 found that only one in 10 schools had enough money to deliver guidance. Seamus Murphy NEET solutions Some schools are putting in place their own measures to stop youngsters from becoming NEET. Additional support put in place for pupils in Turner Schools鈥 alternative provision meant at the end of the last school year, all of them had a destination to move on to for the first time. The eight-school multi-academy trust in Kent organised weekly life skills and careers lessons, one-to-one support and work experience to all its year 11s in alternative provision. It also introduced college interview support after finding that although many of those pupils present as 鈥渧ery outgoing鈥, they have 鈥渄eep-seated anxieties鈥, says chief executive Seamus Murphy. For those lacking parental support there were 鈥渞eal issues with being afraid of the interview and simply not turning up鈥. Last summer Murphy鈥檚 staff accompanied many pupils to their interviews, providing a 鈥渢rusted face鈥 and 鈥渢he confidence to attend鈥. EdStart Schools, an independent provider of alternative provision schools in Salford, Wigan and Wirral, puts its current 鈥渮ero NEET鈥 rate down to all its learners being supported by a 鈥榢ey worker champion鈥. The schools continue engaging with young people beyond Year 11 through summer activities and check-ins in September to keep them on track with their post-16 plans. 鈥淯ltimately, we want to develop brilliant 16 year olds who are ready for the next step in their journey鈥, says director of education Kevin Buchanan. Meanwhile, New Swindon College is developing programmes with organisations with 鈥渆xpertise in reaching out to disengaged young people鈥, such as Prince鈥檚 Trust, rather than 鈥渟hoehorning NEETs into existing provision and tweaking the label鈥. Learners Cameron and Corey from Engineered Learning Engineered Learning, which provides fabrication, welding and vehicle maintenance workshops for NEETs placed there by Derby Council, is also taking a different approach. As well as providing vocational skills and mentoring, it tries to connect NEETs with local employers offering apprenticeships. Its chief executive Dan Read wants to franchise his model to other areas. Some of his NEETs haven鈥檛 attended school since year seven, which Read sees as 鈥渕adness鈥. Often, he finds 鈥渢he carrot鈥 of 鈥渢he security of a warm, dry building and a hot dinner鈥 is enough to get reluctant NEETs 鈥渙nto the shop floor鈥. Tracking pupils not at school But schools can only make a difference to pupils in their remit. Permanent exclusions have risen not only in schools (from a rate of 0.06 to 0.11 per cent between 2013-14 and 2022-23) but in the alternative provision intended to give them a second chance (from 0.10 to 0.34 per cent in that time). There has also been a 23 per cent rise in children missing education, up to 30,400 in 2023. But they鈥檙e not the only young people spending time at home 鈥 the numbers being electively home educated were up 14 per cent to 92,000 that year. The share of local authority alternative provision placements providing one-to-one tuition was up from 3.9 per cent in 2018 to 11 per cent in 2024. Newcastle City Council found a third of those educated at home later became NEET, with 鈥渕any鈥 of those 鈥渙ut of mainstream education for some time鈥 needing 鈥渁dditional support to re-enter education, training or employment鈥. Persistent absentees are also 3.9 times more likely to become NEETs aged 16 to 18, research by the Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre found. The number of key stage 4 persistently absent pupils more than doubled between 2017-18 and 2022-23 (from 172,368 to 367,720). Numbers 鈥榮everely鈥 absent (missing 50 per cent or more lessons) more than tripled (up to 51,791). Children鈥檚 Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza says it could be a 鈥渨orrying predictor of post-16 destinations鈥 and wants 鈥渇ar more help鈥 for young NEETs, 鈥渋ncluding support from trusted adults in schools or colleges鈥. Dame Rachel de Souza Liverpool City Region says the rise in persistent absentees in year 11 is 鈥減resenting challenges with accessing the appropriate support and provision for them when they reach 16鈥. It also linked past school persistent absenteeism to an increase in 19-24 year olds needing 鈥渁dditional help鈥 getting into work because of 鈥渢heir complex and multiple barriers鈥. Butcher says his college is 鈥渟truggling to get access鈥 to young people not in school. 鈥淭hey come through very late, as and when the local authority or other agencies become aware of them,鈥 he explains. In the last 18 months his college has ramped up its communication with the police, who have 鈥測oung people who they want to be in college for their own wellbeing and safety鈥. He says colleges are engaging more with schools than they鈥檝e ever done previously, giving them 鈥渆arly lines of sight鈥 on young people鈥檚 school attendance and 鈥減otentially significant mental health challenges鈥. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a work in progress, depending on the resources and willingness of schools to make that engagement鈥.