Sir Martyn Oliver has overseen big changes in how Ofsted conducts inspections since taking the job in January. Have grades changed too? Schools Week investigates 鈥 Far fewer grades lower than ‘good’ have been dished out so far during his tenure, new analysis shows. But Ofsted said this was a continued 鈥渦pward trend in inspection outcomes over the last few years鈥, and is not a new pattern. However critics have said grading standards should be 鈥渃onsistent鈥 across the same frameworks 鈥 so it is not unfair on schools inspected early on. Schools Week analysed inspection data across the first three months of this year, the latest available, and compared it to the same period in previous years. Oliver joined the inspectorate in January. 鈥楧ifficult to draw firm conclusion鈥 Of the 373 schools that were inspected and had a report published between January 1 and March 31 this year,11 per cent were rated less than 鈥榞ood鈥. Just three 鈥榠nadequates鈥 (less than 1 per cent) were issued. Compared to the same period last year, 20 per cent of the 503 schools were rated less than 鈥榞ood鈥 鈥 of which 11 (2 per cent) were 鈥榠nadequate鈥. The difference is also slightly larger when previously 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools 鈥 which did not used to be inspected 鈥 are omitted from the analysis. Ian Hartwright, head of policy at school leaders鈥 union NAHT, said: 鈥淚t is difficult to draw any firm conclusion about different grade profiles across the selected periods, much less whether there are any indicators about the impact of the new chief inspector on the grade distributions across schools.鈥 But it does appear to confirm a trend of better grades is continuing under Oliver. In the first three months of 2020, prior to inspections being scrapped for Covid, 38 per cent of schools were rated less than 鈥榞ood鈥. Experts said a big factor will be schools having more time to get used to the 2019 framework 鈥 which changed inspections to focus less on results and more on curriculum. Recent rises up the international league tables also point to England鈥檚 schools delivering better outcomes, too. 鈥楬as Ofsted lost its nerve?鈥 Adrian Gray, an education consultant and former Ofsted inspector who has published his own analysis on the change in grades, said: 鈥淲e don鈥檛 really know what鈥檚 going on, but the pattern is really clear: you get a better grade now than you did four years ago. 鈥淚 suppose the big question is has Ofsted gone soft, or has it lost its nerve?鈥 Our analysis found 16 per cent of schools inspected and with a published report in the first three months of this year got 鈥榦utstanding鈥. This is double the 8 per cent in the same period last year. However, when the analysis is repeated with previously 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools omitted, the difference is less severe (9 per cent this year compared to 6 per cent). But Gray said the grading 鈥渟tandard should be consistent across the whole lifetime of the framework鈥. Julie Price Grimshaw, a former inspector and frequent critic of the watchdog, said if Ofsted 鈥渉ad suddenly become more lenient鈥, that was 鈥渞eally unfair鈥 on schools inspected earlier on and would make a 鈥渕ockery鈥 of the grading system. The difference appears to be driven by primaries. In the first three months last year, 20 per cent of primary schools were less than 鈥榞ood鈥, compared to just 8 per cent this year, our analysis found. For secondaries, it was 21 per cent last year and 20 per cent this. In primaries, 17 per cent were also 鈥榦utstanding鈥 in the three months this year, compared to just 6 per cent last year. 鈥楳ajor shift鈥 in primary grades Gray said the data and his own analysis showed an 鈥渁stonishing increase in outstanding primaries鈥 that marked a 鈥渕ajor shift鈥. Reflecting on the findings, John Jerrim, professor of education and social statistics at UCL, said if there was a genuine shift, it is 鈥減robably more to do with human behaviour and how inspectors might act鈥. He cited the death of Caversham Primary School headteacher Ruth Perry and suggested this could be weighing on the minds of inspectors. A coroner ruled she died in January last year by suicide, contributed to by an Ofsted inspection. He added: 鈥淚f I was an inspector, I鈥檇 have been thinking, 鈥楪od, if I鈥檓 going to give a bad judgment here, I need to be really damn sure, way more sure than I would be previously鈥.鈥 Grades rises 鈥榥ot new鈥 However Ofsted said any suggestion that this is a new trend was not accurate. 鈥淲e have been seeing an upward trend in inspection outcomes over the last few years,鈥 a spokesperson added. 鈥淭his is due to a variety of factors, including our return to inspecting previously exempt outstanding schools. This improvement is good news for children 鈥 as part of our 鈥楤ig Listen鈥 we are asking parents, professionals and children for their thoughts on the national profile of grades.鈥 Analysis provided by the watchdog showed that 16 per cent of all schools this year were rated 鈥榦utstanding鈥, compared to 5 per cent in 2021-22. However, because 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools are now being reinspected, the overall number with the top grade has fallen overall, from 20 per cent in 2019 to 15 per cent now. Just over a third of those schools kept the top grade after being reinspected.