Teacher retention incentives for those working in the government鈥檚 鈥渆ducation investment areas鈥 should be redirected to the schools in the most deprived areas nationally, the National Foundation for Educational Research has said. Its analysis found 鈥渓ittle difference between teacher supply challenges faced by schools in EIAs compared to those that are not鈥. At the same time, it found 鈥渃onsiderable differences faced by schools with different levels of pupil eligibility for free school meals鈥. also warned a mooted 6.5 per cent pay rise for teachers next year is 鈥渦nlikely to make a significant overall difference鈥 to teacher supply on its own, as the government prepares to publish its final decision. Official figures show the government missed its secondary teacher recruitment target by over 40 per cent last year, also falling short of its primary target. Subject-specific teacher training bursaries 鈥渉ave provided some level of remedy to the supply challenges, but in recent years this has not been enough to ensure sufficient teacher supply鈥, NFER鈥檚 report found. The government has also been running a scheme of 鈥渓evelling-up鈥 retention payments for teachers in certain subjects teaching in its education investment areas 鈥 parts of the country with the lowest educational outcomes. Funding for these payments comes to an end in 2024-25, and NFER said this presented an 鈥渙pportunity to redesign early career payment policy鈥. The government should redesign the payments by 鈥渨idening eligibility to all schools nationally and increasing payment generosity to enhance its impact, and targeting resource towards shortage subjects and schools serving disadvantaged communities鈥. 6.5% rise won’t solve teacher supply issues The Department for Education is still yet to announce its pay offer for teachers for 2023. The School Teachers鈥 Review Body is understood to have recommended a 6.5 per cent average rise. There has also been speculation prime minister Rishi Sunak could ignore recommedations from pay bodies, and reports that chancellor Jeremy Hunt expects departments to make cuts elsewhere to fund pay rises. Geoff Barton NFER said a 6.5 per cent rise would be a 鈥渨elcome first step for addressing the lost competitiveness in teachers鈥 pay over the last decade鈥. But if pay awards next year and in the future 鈥渕erely match the anticipated growth in average earnings in the wider labour market then they are unlikely to significantly address the pressing recruitment and retention challenges鈥, NFER warned. ASCL general secretary Geoff Barton said a 6.5 per cent pay rise would be a 鈥渟tep in the right direction provided there is adequate funding for schools to be able to afford the pay award鈥. 鈥淗owever, as it stands, the government has not even agreed to this figure, let alone committed to anything remotely resembling a long-term strategy to address teacher shortages. In fact, reports suggest the prime minister is arguing that it should be much less.鈥 Upsides and downsides to ‘flattened’ pay Ministers鈥 pledge to increase teachers鈥 starting salaries to 拢30,000 has meant sharper rises in recent years for teachers early on in their career. The NFER said further 鈥渇lattening鈥 of the main pay scale 鈥渕ay be relatively cost effective because it targets resource at teachers who are more responsive to changes in pay鈥. However, it warned pay flattening 鈥渁lso has implications for the incentives to progress and the balance of early career and more experienced teachers within the school system鈥. Setting the pay of primary and secondary teachers separately and increasing secondary teacher pay, which is not something that has been proposed by the government, 鈥渕ay also be relatively cost effective, when comparing just the total costs and teacher supply impacts鈥. However, primary teachers 鈥渁re likely to regard such proposals as unfair and our analysis suggests that such a proposal would be forecasted to considerably increase the gender pay gap within the school sector鈥. Long-term strategy needed The report recommended a new long-term pay and financial incentives strategy, and said political parties should set out in their 2024 manifestos 鈥渨hat teacher pay and financial incentive measures they intend to implement to address the teacher supply challenge鈥. Jack Worth The DfE should also publish the 鈥渙verall forecasted teacher supply impact of its pay and financial incentive proposals鈥. And where an impact assessment suggests supply is unlikely to be met, the DfE should 鈥渟et out the financial and non-financial actions being taken to improve teacher supply, particularly in subjects not expected to reach their respective targets鈥. Senior workforce lead Jack Worth said the evidence on teacher recruitment and retention 鈥渕akes a clear and compelling case for the need for a new long-term strategy on teacher pay and financial incentives to address the intense teacher supply challenge鈥. 鈥淎s a bare minimum, an effective strategy needs to increase teacher pay by more than the rate of pay growth in the wider economy, expand the set of targeted financial incentives that are currently in place, and ideally both.鈥