About three in five planned free schools are slated to open in areas with rising numbers of surplus pupil places, analysis by Schools Week has found. And half of mainstream primary and secondary schools in the 鈥減re-opening鈥 stage are in areas where more than 10 per cent of places will be 鈥渟pare鈥 next academic year. Council bosses warn the findings 鈥渄emonstrate the need for a more coherent system with local authorities at its centre with strategic oversight鈥. But school leaders behind free school projects, some of which have been in the pipeline for more than six years, said the figures did not tell the whole story, with housebuilding expected to drive demand in specific neighbourhoods. 鈥榃e鈥檒l cancel free schools when need not there鈥 Pupil numbers are expected to shrink 12 per cent over the next decade as a population bulge from the 2000s baby boom moves out of the school system. Primary numbers are already in freefall and set to drop by 760,000 in 10 years. This is already putting pressure on schools, particularly in areas such as London where emigration is making things worse. Andrew McCully, the Department for Education鈥檚 director-general, the department looked at every free school project, 鈥渆ven though an initial commitment may have been given鈥, to ensure the places were needed. 鈥淲e have continued to take free school projects out of the system, to cancel them, when the need is not there.鈥 Schools Week cross-referenced the free schools 鈥減ipeline鈥 with government predictions of spare places in 2021 and 2023. Of 87 planned mainstream primary and secondary free schools, 54 were in areas where the number of spare places was predicted to rise this year. Forty-four were in areas where more than 10 per cent of places would be surplus in 2023. 鈥楶lace-planning doesn鈥檛 tell full story鈥 In Hartlepool, about 20 per cent of primary places will be spare in 2023, up from 14.3 per cent in 2021. Plans for St Joseph鈥檚 C of E Primary School were approved in 2016. Its proposed sponsor, the Melrose Learning Trust, hopes to open the school in 2025. Roger Ward, the trust鈥檚 chief executive, warned that 鈥減upil-place planning calculations do not always correlate with the local situation鈥. The school will be based in the expanding Wynard Estate, where 鈥渢housands of new houses are being built. It鈥檚 a rapidly growing estate; hopefully the school will grow alongside it.鈥 In the London borough of Barking and Dagenham, the estimate of spare places has been revised up from 13.5 per cent in 2021 to 15.9 per cent in 2023. Greatfields and Mallard primaries, sponsored by Partnership Learning, have been in the pipeline since 2016. Roger Leighton, the trust鈥檚 chief executive, said it recently withdrew a proposed secondary school 鈥渨hen it became clear that there would not be sufficient demand until 2030鈥. But because primary provision must be 鈥渧ery localised鈥, looking at council-level vacancy figures 鈥渄oes not work for primary-place planning鈥. The primary schools would be in neighbourhoods with 鈥渟ignificant鈥 new house-building. Fords View Primary School was supposed in open in Dagenham this September. It will now open in 2027, 11 years after it was approved. TVI Learning, the school鈥檚 sponsor, was not the original bidder but took over the project. Paul Jordan, its chief executive, said issues such as Brexit, the 2019 election and the Covid pandemic had contributed to the delay. 鈥榃e need a more coherent system鈥 Premier Advisory holds a government contract to support free school bids. Charlotte Pearce Cornish, its director, said the challenge came when there were delays to opening once the school was approved, 鈥渨hich can mean that local demographics have changed鈥. Charlotte Pearce Cornish Steve Crocker, the president of the Association of Directors of Children鈥檚 Services, said Schools Week鈥檚 findings were 鈥渘ot surprising, but they demonstrate the need for a more coherent system with local authorities at its centre with strategic oversight鈥. 鈥淭oo often, we see free schools opening up miles from where they are needed, placing further pressure on already stretched transport budgets, or subsequently closing costing millions to the public purse and disrupting education for pupils.鈥 A Local Government Association spokesperson warned there was a 鈥渞isk that opening new schools where there are already surplus places could destabilise local education systems鈥. The DfE said it 鈥渃ontinuously reviews the viability of all schools within the free schools pipeline and they only open when we are confident that they will be good, viable, sustainable and successful鈥. Additional reporting by Amy Walker.