Schools with the poorest intakes are more likely to have seen their progress 8 scores drop over the past eight years, FFT Education Datalab analysed progress 8 scores by school type, region and demographics between 2016 and 2023. It comes after the government announced that it won鈥檛 implement alternative progress measures in the next two academic years. The next two GCSE cohorts do not have key stage 2 SATs results because of the Covid pandemic. This, coupled with Labour鈥檚 pledge to reform the measure, means 鈥渋t鈥檚 possible that 2024 will be the last time we see progress 8 in its current form,鈥 said Datalab鈥檚 Katie Beynon. The organisation took public progress 8 data, and divided schools into five equal 鈥渜uintiles鈥 based on the proportion of year 11 pupils who had been eligible for free school meals at some point in the past six years. Beynon said that 鈥渂roadly, schools with the least disadvantaged cohorts saw the biggest increases in progress 8 scores, while those with the most disadvantaged cohorts saw the biggest falls鈥. Between 2016 and 2023, the highest quintile schools – so those with the fewest poorer pupils – experienced an average increase of around 0.15, from +0.21 to +0.37. Schools in the lowest quintile saw an average fall of 0.08, from -0.17 to -0.25. Schools in the lowest two quintiles had 鈥渟imilar average scores鈥 in 2016, but 鈥渜uite different鈥 scores last year. 鈥淲e think this is the impact of schools in London becoming less disadvantaged over time. A greater proportion of ‘Q5’ schools in 2016 were in London than ‘Q5’ schools in 2023,鈥 said Beynon. 鈥淎nd London schools tend to do better on progress 8 than schools elsewhere (largely due to other demographic factors, like having a larger proportion of pupils with English as an additional language).鈥 Converter academies saw slight score drop Datalab also analysed scores by school type, finding that schools that became sponsored academies 鈥 those forced to convert because of poor performance 鈥 鈥渢ended to improve their scores a little, albeit from a relatively low base鈥. Schools that were already sponsored academies in 2016 saw their average scores drop from -0.14 to -0.20. Schools that became converter academies 鈥 those that opt to convert 鈥 鈥渢ended to see their scores drop a little, apart from those which changed from voluntary aided鈥. Beynon said some schools 鈥渉ave seen big changes in their progress 8 scores between the first and most recent sets, with around one in five seeing swings of at least 0.5 in either direction鈥. 鈥淭his seems, in part, to be related to school disadvantage 鈥 the most disadvantaged schools tended to see their scores fall, and the least disadvantaged tended to see them rise. Of course, there will be many other factors at play for these schools too.鈥 鈥淗owever, a large proportion of schools 鈥 around 40% 鈥 achieved similar scores in both years. The (admittedly unanswerable) question is: would this number would have been higher or lower without the turbulence schools experienced in the intervening time?鈥