Schools in the poorest areas are getting better Ofsted grades, but there is still a huge gap with their wealthier counterparts, new analysis suggests. Experts also point out it is not possible to say how much of the rise is simply because of more 鈥榞ood鈥 grades now being issued 鈥 and poorer schools are now actually less likely to get 鈥榦utstanding鈥. Chief inspector Amanda Spielman pledged at the start of her tenure that the 2019 inspection framework She had said the old framework, which focused more on results, had made it 鈥渉arder to get a good or outstanding grade if your test scores are low鈥 as a result of a 鈥渃hallenging or deprived intake鈥. As Spielman nears her final month in office, Schools Week looks at whether she鈥檚 followed through on that promise… 鈥楾entative signs鈥 of change… In a December 2019 blog, Ofsted admitted schools with more deprived intakes were less likely to be rated 鈥榞ood鈥 鈥 despite the inspection changes. But has it changed since? Schools Week replicated the analysis, which compared grades issued to schools broken down by their income deprivation affecting children index (IDACI) quintile. In 2018-19, there was a 17 percentage point difference between the proportion of the most and least deprived schools deemed 鈥榞ood鈥. But last year, the gap was just four percentage points. But IDACI is based on the postcode in which children live, which might not necessarily reflect their disadvantage levels. However, analysis of Ofsted grades versus the percentage of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals also shows a similar trend. John Jerrim, professor of education and social statistics at UCL鈥檚 Institute of Education, said the analysis showed 鈥渢entative signs that the link between Ofsted judgments and disadvantage may be weakening鈥. 鈥ut all grades are improving But he urged caution on drawing any firm conclusions. One complication is that 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools have only recently started being inspected again 鈥 meaning the cohort of schools visited by inspectors last year is different to 2018-19. In autumn 2021, when inspections resumed post-Covid, Spielman said halving the number of outstanding schools to one in ten was a 鈥渕ore realistic starting point for the system鈥. However, when we re-ran the analysis with previously 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools omitted, the gap between schools with poorer and wealthier pupils still shrank. Dave Thomson, the chief statistician at FFT Education Datalab, said this supported the finding that schools in poorer areas were getting better grades. But another issue is the different profile of grades handed out under the current framework compared with pre-2019. For instance, across all inspections in 2018-19, just 55 per cent of schools were rated 鈥榞ood鈥 and 38 per cent were below 鈥榞ood鈥. But last year, 70 per cent of schools were rated 鈥榞ood鈥 and just 23 per cent were less than 鈥榞ood鈥. Thomson said this meant we won鈥檛 know if 鈥渢he schools that were judged 鈥榬equires improvement’ or 鈥榠nadequate鈥 in the past would have fared any better had they been inspected under the current framework. 鈥淚n other words, has the standard Ofsted expects changed?鈥 And 鈥榦utstanding鈥 gap gets bigger But while more 鈥榞ood鈥 grades are given out, far fewer 鈥榦utstanding鈥 grades are now awarded. This has resulted in a growing gap in the top grade between schools with the poorest and wealthiest pupils. Our analysis shows 14 per cent of the schools with the least free school meal pupils got 鈥榦utstanding鈥 last year, compared with 5 per cent of those with the most. This is a much wider gap than in 2018-19 (10 per cent versus 6 per cent respectively). Jerrim said this finding was 鈥渨orrying鈥. When broken down by phases, the change at primary is minimal. But at secondary level, the gap has ballooned. In 2018-19, just 2 per cent of secondaries with the poorest pupils got 鈥榦utstanding鈥, compared with 17 per cent with the fewest. Last year, this had changed to 5 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively. What does it mean for deprived schools? Paul Tarn, the chief executive at Delta Academies Trust, suggested that 鈥渕iddle-class cohort[s]鈥 were still 鈥渕uch better placed鈥 to gain the top grades because they were 鈥渂etter able to articulate their learning鈥 to inspectors. Tom Campbell, the chief executive of E-ACT, said he was concerned inspectors were still failing to 鈥渦nderstand the impact a school is making despite the challenges鈥, which included acute recruitment issues. Chris Zarraga Chris Zarraga, the director of Schools North East, said most leaders in the region thought the framework was 鈥渁n improvement鈥. 鈥淗owever, the persistence of the gap is a reminder that the impact of long-term deprivation, which the north east has higher rates of, is not adequately being taken into account.鈥 In response to our analysis, an Ofsted spokesperson said it 鈥渁lways鈥 took a 鈥渟chool鈥檚 circumstances into account on inspection, including its deprivation level鈥. 鈥淚n 2019, our new education inspection framework put greater emphasis on the substance of education 鈥 the curriculum. 鈥淢any schools are now more focused on providing their pupils with a broad and rich curriculum, and this is reflected in recent positive inspection outcomes.鈥 Keegan鈥檚 Ofsted grade boast is 鈥榗ynical鈥, says academic Gillian Keegan鈥檚 claim that a rise in Ofsted grades since 2010 shows the Conservatives are 鈥渞elentlessly driving up standards鈥 is 鈥渁 complete red-herring鈥, says a London academic. As of August 31, 89 per cent of schools were rated 鈥榞ood鈥 or 鈥榦utstanding鈥, a one percentage increase on the year before. On social media, Keegan highlighted that 鈥渙nly鈥 68 per cent of schools were rated 鈥榞ood鈥 or better under Labour in 2010, when the Conservatives came to power. 鈥淭his progress is thanks to the dedication of our hard-working teachers and the reforms that we have introduced since 2010 that have made a lasting impact on the quality of education received by young people,鈥 a spokesperson said. But John Jerrim, professor of education and social statistics at UCL鈥檚 Institute of Education, described the education secretary鈥檚 claim as 鈥渁 complete red-herring and pretty cynical鈥. Schools rated as 鈥榦utstanding鈥 were exempt from inspection for eight years until 2020, meaning the proportion of top-rated schools 鈥渃ouldn鈥檛 decline 鈥 it could only stay still or go up鈥, he said. Four in five previously 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools have lost their top grade in the past two years. The introduction of ungraded inspections for 鈥榞ood鈥 and 鈥榦utstanding鈥 schools in 2015 had 鈥渕ade it quite hard for a school rated as good to be downgraded鈥, Jerrim said. 鈥淗ence, again, this has driven the [percentage of] good and outstanding to increase.鈥 Ofsted data up to August shows that 2 per cent of ungraded inspections of 鈥榞ood鈥 schools end up being converted into graded inspections, where the outcome may change. The proportion of 鈥榞ood鈥 schools in Ofsted鈥檚 analysis has risen from 66 per cent in August 2019 to 73 per cent last year.