The government will “certainly” miss its 2030 target for all schools joining larger multi-academy trusts, as it would require 鈥渦nprecedented鈥 upheaval that threatens standards, a new report says. Here are the key findings from a National Foundation for Educational Research study, on 鈥渢ransitioning to a multi-academy trust-led system鈥. 1. 鈥楿nprecedented鈥 academy conversions required聽 Schools would have to join MATs and trusts merge 鈥渁t an unprecedented scale鈥 to have all schools in MATs of 10 schools or 7,500 pupils by 2030 鈥 the 2021 ‘opportunity for all’ white paper鈥檚 vision. The study found 25 maintained mainstream schools and three single-academy trusts would need to convert every week. Schools Week analysis shows actual conversions only averaged 7.5 per week in December. Currently, more than half of academies are in trusts with fewer than 10 schools 鈥 which rises to more than two-thirds in London and the north-west. Julie McCulloch Julie McCulloch, policy director at school leaders鈥 union ASCL, dubbed the 2030 target 鈥渢otally unrealistic鈥. NFER research director Jenna Julius said the Department for Education should instead 鈥減rioritise a slower transition that allows time to build MAT capacity鈥. 2. Schools and councils frosty on academisation 鈥 But do those schools even want to join MATs? Just six per cent of the 33 councils who completed the NFER survey were in favour of all schools being in strong MATs of 10 schools or 7,500 pupils by 2030. More than half of LAs said their local maintained and standalone academy schools alike were opposed to joining multi-academy trusts. Only around one in 10 councils felt retaining schools was no longer financially viable, or wanted powers to force conversions 鈥 as proposed by DfE under the since-ditched schools bill. The report notes 2010 academy legislation and the 2016 white paper both sparked mass conversions. But it warned a repeat is “unlikely”, explaining: “Given the current political context, the slowdown in academisation in recent years and the scale of academisation and trust growth that would be required, it is likely to take a significant period for the government to achieve an all-MAT system, certainly beyond 2030,” the report said. 3. 鈥 and councils lack cash to form MATs Two-thirds of councils surveyed showed interest in DfE proposals for LA-established trusts. The NFER called it an 鈥渋mportant avenue鈥 to boost conversions, but said more cash was needed. The study found just two in five councils expected to launch MATs within three years; only one in five applied to a DfE pilot. The NFER put the gap down to 鈥渃oncerns 鈥 about their ability to fund the process鈥, with two-thirds of councils saying they lacked both resources and clarity needed. The DfE was approached for an update on its LA MAT pilot. A Local Government Association spokesperson said the government should widen its plans beyond areas without 鈥渟trong鈥 trusts, noting it would help reluctant converters remain connected to LAs. Four-fifths of council respondents feared even some schools looking to convert would be 鈥渓eft behind鈥, unwanted by MATs. Meanwhile trust funding pots for growth are also 鈥渘ot commensurate with a rapid academisation target鈥. 4. Rapid growth threatens standards The NFER also warns rapid growth 鈥渞isks creating issues for trust quality, as it did during the initial rapid expansion of MATs鈥, with schools joining “inappropriate” trusts. Ministers had to 鈥減ause鈥 the growth of large trusts, including E-ACT and the Academies Enterprise Trust, around a decade ago over concerns they had grown too quickly and standards had fallen. Plymouth CAST鈥檚 birth from 34 simultaneous conversions in 2014 has also been described as 鈥渃autionary tale鈥, with stinging criticism from Ofsted. The NFER report states: 鈥淪ome schools might rush to join a MAT, which is not necessarily an appropriate match, for fear of being forced to join another MAT in the future.鈥 This risks creating 鈥渟ubstantial medium-term challenges鈥 – particularly given the lack of an “appropriate” regulatory framework – and could impact other priorities like Covid-19 recovery. NFER also flagged councils鈥 warnings that mass conversions would 鈥渋nevitably divert resources from other areas鈥, including pressing priorities like the cost-of-living crisis and special educational needs and disability funding. McCulloch also urged DfE to prioritise 鈥減ressing issues鈥 like staffing shortages and funding. 鈥淭hese are much greater threats to educational standards over the next few years than some schools not being in MATs.鈥 5. 鈥楲ack of evidence鈥 for trust vision The NFER urged government to prioritise a delayed academy regulation review, with a 鈥渃lear need鈥 for a national regulatory framework for trust performance 鈥 and 鈥渉igh-quality evidence鈥 needed to underpin it. It is 鈥渘ot clear鈥 whether proposals will 鈥渁dequately assess trust quality鈥, with reliance on performance measures 鈥減otentially鈥isleading鈥. Evidence is currently lacking on the optimal trust size, the report noted, and research has shown 鈥渁cademisation alone does not necessarily improve school outcomes鈥. Nearly one in 10 MATs have a majority of schools rated less than 鈥榞ood鈥, raising questions about whether there is 鈥渟ufficient focus鈥 on improving MAT schools. There is also 鈥渃onsiderable variation鈥 in how quickly DfE regional directors transfer failing academies into new trusts, with re-brokerage typically 18 months faster in the east of England than the north-east. The DfE was approached for comment.