In a 鈥渨ar room鈥 near Gavin Williamson鈥檚 office in August 2020, officials and advisers sat around a flip chart with the words: 鈥淯-turn 鈥 what we are going to do?鈥
After days of resistance, the government confirmed GCSE and A-level pupils would be awarded teacher grades, rather than those standardised by what become known as the 鈥渕utant algorithm鈥.
Earlier that week, nearly 40 per cent of A-level results had been downgraded after exams were cancelled during Covid.
The usual images of pupils jumping for joy were replaced by pictures of youngsters in tears.
Schools Week looks back on how 鈥 despite the spectacular failure 鈥 exams survived their greatest test 鈥
Covid chaos
It鈥檚 hard to forget the chaos of that summer. It started with Scotland backtracking on its standardised grades on August 11, 2020.
Despite this, and two days after those images of distraught youngsters, then education secretary Williamson was insistent: 鈥淣o U-turn, no change鈥.
But it unravelled the same day when Ofqual published guidance on using mock exam grades in appeals 鈥 which was sensationally withdrawn hours later.
Within 48 hours, ministers announced pupils would receive their teacher grades. Williamson resigned but Boris Johnson, wouldn鈥檛 accept it, one former adviser recalls.
How did we end up here?
Ofqual originally suggested holding exams with extra safety precaution, or awarding alternative qualifications to GCSE or A-levels. But these options were 鈥減olitically unpalatable鈥, says Roger Taylor, its former chair.
Instead, Williamson told the regulator to award grades without exams, but to ensure 鈥渜ualification standards are maintained and the distribution of grades follows a similar profile to that in previous years鈥.
Angus Walker, who was Williamson鈥檚 special adviser, says there was a 鈥渃onsensus鈥 among politicians and unions that moderation was required to keep a lid on 鈥渢he big evil鈥 grade inflation.
Schools were asked to grade pupils on what they were most likely to have achieved, then put them in a rank order.
Exam boards then used Ofqual鈥檚 statistical model to standardise grades, looking at expected grade distributions at a national level, schools鈥 results in previous years and prior attainment of pupils.
And while grade inflation was kept at bay, the consequence was pupils missing out on university places.
It wasn鈥檛 just that. Poorer pupils were more likely to be downgraded, whereas private schools enjoyed the biggest rise in results.
鈥楨xams are a human story鈥
鈥淭he system did what it was meant to do, it just did it in a way that threw up oddities,鈥 says Walker.
鈥淚n hindsight, the whole process lost sight of the fact that exams are a human story. It鈥檚 not a machine process.鈥
Taylor adds: 鈥淭he error was thinking it was a reasonable thing to ask people to have their lives disrupted on the basis of an estimate. There was a failure to realise how insulting this was.鈥
Loic Menzies, a visiting fellow at the Sheffield Institute of Education, says policymakers tend to 鈥渂ias鈥 towards the system, rather than individual. 鈥淏ut given how much these pupils had already suffered, it鈥檚 no surprise the usual approach blew up in their faces鈥.
While it was 鈥渙bvious鈥 that any downgrade would feel 鈥渞eally awful鈥 for a pupil, there wasn鈥檛 time for a 鈥渕assive communications campaign鈥, says Michelle Meadows, deputy chief regulator at the time.
鈥淗ow the algorithm worked was very technical. People didn鈥檛 really understand the true impact of what they were being consulted on, because if they did, they wouldn鈥檛 have been so positive about it.鈥
The whole process lost sight of the fact that exams are a human story
Exams were cancelled again in 2021, but the government 鈥減ut its trust in teachers rather than algorithms鈥, with light quality checks from exam boards.
However, in 2021, the decisions were made by a new team. Ofqual chief regulator Sally Collier and Department for Education permanent secretary Jonathan Slater had been moved on in August. Taylor stood down in December.
Unsurprisingly, light-touch regulation led to big increases in grades. The proportion of A-levels graded A and above rose from 25.2 per cent to 44.3 per cent.
With exams cancelled two years running, critics saw an opportunity. One review, from the Tony Blair Institute, concluded GCSEs and A-levels should be scrapped.
When Dr Jo Saxton took over as chief regulator in September 2021, she was focused on 鈥渦pholding public confidence鈥 in exams.
Learning lessons from 2020, she undertook a 鈥渓istening tour鈥 across the country and says pupils told her they didn鈥檛 want 鈥渋n their words 鈥楥ovid grades鈥, they wanted grades that would stand them instead through the rest of their lives鈥.
But Saxton didn鈥檛 think Ofqual could keep public confidence while lurching back to pre-pandemic grading standards. So the grade inflation was to be wound back gradually over two years.
Covid鈥檚 silver lining?
However, the grading standard post-Covid is more generous.
A-level pupils this year achieved the best set of top grades since at least 2010, despite the supposed Covid learning loss.
Sir Ian Bauckham
While Ofqual may face questions in the long-term about the more generous grading standards, exams seem to have survived. And that鈥檚 despite the Covid U-turn debacle, which Simon Case, who was then the government鈥檚 most senior civil servant, described as the 鈥渕ost awful governing I think I鈥檝e ever seen鈥.
But the transition back to exams and normal grading standards 鈥渉ad a plan, was pragmatic and not too ideological鈥, one ex-adviser says. Because of this, exams have 鈥渃ome through with flying colours鈥, they add.
They claim that when exams were cancelled in January 2021, there was an 鈥渁ttempted organised resignation鈥 from Ofqual board members who wanted to 鈥減rotect the importance of exams and the importance of proper assessment鈥. But this showed a 鈥渃omplete ideological lack of pragmatism鈥.
Sir Ian Bauckham, Ofqual chief regulator, says the 鈥渟ilver lining鈥 is that despite the disruption, including the 鈥減ractical workload challenge鈥 of teacher grades, 鈥渨e understood the value of having fit-for-purpose external assessment to preserve the reputation of those qualifications鈥.
Not everyone agrees. Peter Hyman, a founder of Rethinking Assessment, believes the pandemic made parents 鈥渞ealise just how narrow the exams system is鈥.
Liz Robinson, the chief executive at Big Education academy trust, also thinks there was a missed opportunity.
鈥淐ovid was assertively used to say let鈥檚 get back to normal as soon as possible. There was no intellectual curiosity at all about how we might think about things differently.鈥
What does the future hold?
Exams in some form are here to stay, with Labour committed to protecting their 鈥渋mportant role鈥.
But there are some broader and big issues that the government wants to resolve.
Research by the National Foundation for Educational Research found pupils are studying a narrower range of subjects post-16 compared with 20 years ago.
Reasons include former education secretary Michael Gove鈥檚 decoupling of AS and A-levels.
Barnaby Lenon, a former Ofqual adviser, says it means one subject has 鈥渂asically been lost. I鈥檓 not saying Gove was wrong, but I think it鈥檚 a pity we鈥檝e gone from four subjects down to three鈥.
Hyman adds: 鈥淚f we want a broader curriculum, then it makes no sense to have a narrow exam system. We need knowledge-rich, but we also need skills-rich, character-rich and a broader assessment system to follow that.鈥
Hyman鈥檚 Rethinking Assessment has called for a 鈥渓earner profile鈥, including a link to a portfolio, endorsements from work experience employers and achievements out of school.
But David Laws, a former schools minister who worked alongside Gove, says the public recognises the GCSE and A-level brand. 鈥淲hat seems attractive to politicians in conference speeches doesn鈥檛 always serve the interests of young people or teachers.
鈥淲hen you introduce new brands 鈥 like the T-level 鈥 that are devised by politicians over a short period of time, there鈥檚 risk that they don鈥檛 bed in and before they do, they鈥檝e been replaced.鈥
He thinks the debate should focus on 鈥渞emoving the wedge鈥 between academic and technical qualifications.
鈥淚t would help to ensure people are choosing qualifications that suit their needs and interests rather than feeling there are some qualifications they can鈥檛 pursue because they have a lower status associated with them.鈥
Another issue likely to be revisited is the balance between exams and non-examined elements 鈥 like coursework. More oral exams are also on the agenda given Labour鈥檚 interest in oracy.
Another likely change is the move to on-screen exams. Reza Schwitzer, AQA鈥檚 external affairs director, says it鈥檚 鈥渓argely an implementation challenge鈥 鈥 such as having enough computers and space in schools.
But Bauckham says the 鈥渋mportant rider is we must do these things in a way that is fair to everybody鈥.